Indonesia’s second Covid-19 wave peak is likely still to come

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When Suharyanto’s pregnant wife Rina Ismawati and two of their three children fell ill last month, he initially thought it was a common cold. But with Covid-19 cases rising in Indonesia, he took them to get tested.

The whole family tested positive for Covid-19, including Suharyanto — and 43-year-old Ismawati was admitted to hospital, where she lay in bed, occasionally sending Suharyanto messages through WhatsApp. “She told me that her condition was getting worse,” Suharyanto said. “She couldn’t breathe.”

On June 22, Riski died in hospital. Suharyanto had only ever seen him in a photo. The following day, Ismawati died, too.

Suharyanto’s wife and child are just two of the devastating and growing Covid-19 toll in Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most populous country, which is fast becoming the new center of Asia’s coronavirus crisis.

Relatives wearing face masks mourn a coronavirus victim at Rorotan public cemetery in Jakarta.
For weeks, Indonesia, home to about 270 million people, has been reporting thousands of daily cases and hundreds deaths as the highly contagious Delta variant ravages the country. Social media is flooded with posts from users who have lost loved ones to the virus. Hospitals are running dangerously low on supplies, excavators are frantically digging burial plots, and isolating remains impossible for the millions like Suharyanto living on a daily wage. The country is also facing the added challenge of widespread, rampant misinformation, and a vaccination rate of less than 6%.

With more than 2.7 million people infected and more than 70,000 dead, onlookers caution the country may not have reached its peak.

How did this happen

For much of last year, Indonesia managed to keep its Covid-19 outbreak largely under control. Then, as cases rose in June, overwhelming hospitals, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies warned Indonesia was “on the edge of a Covid-19 catastrophe.

The country had seen a “dramatic increase in confirmed cases” after the festive holidays, Indonesia’s Health Minister, Budi Gunadi Sadikin, said earlier this month. He put the explosion in cases down to the fast-spreading Delta variant, which was first identified in India and has since spread to almost 100 countries.

Indonesia entered a lockdown on July 10, by which point the country was reporting more than 30,000 new cases each day. The government said it is “mobilizing all resources” to deal with the Covid-19 surge, including bringing in oxygen from other countries to increase the supply.

Daily reported Covid-19 cases

But experts say Indonesia is now bearing the cost of not locking down early enough.

And the current numbers likely don’t capture the whole picture. More than 27% of tests come back positive, according to Johns Hopkins University figures, giving Indonesia one of the highest test positivity rates in the world. The numbers suggest that many cases still aren’t being caught.

A survey published last Saturday showed nearly half of Jakarta’s residents may have contracted Covid-19 — more than 12 times the number of cases officially recorded in the Indonesian capital at the time when the research was carried out.
“Without appropriate testing, many provinces are unable to isolate confirmed cases on time,” the World Health Organization said in its most recent situation report.

Just a common cold

Another major barrier to controlling Indonesia’s outbreak is the flood of misinformation.

For months, WhatsApp messages have spread fake news about ineffective Covid-19 treatments. Hoaxes about the vaccines have circulated on social media, making some people unwilling to take the shot for fear it could cause serious disease or death. And because of misinformation, many people in Indonesia still aren’t taking Covid-19 seriously, even as cases rise around them.

Amid all the noise, warnings about the severity of Covid-19 are being lost.

A few weeks ago, Karunia Sekar Kinanti, 32, noticed her two-month-old son Zhafran had a fever, but she assumed it was just a common cold.

Her mother had a flu and cough, but Kinanti didn’t think it was Covid because her mother still had a sense of smell. “Her symptoms didn’t seem to be Covid-19, so I was calm about responding to it,” she said. “Then Zhafran, me, and my other child got sick, too.”

Karunia Sekar Kinanti is in hospital with her two-month-old son Zhafran, who has Covid-19.

Two weeks ago, as he became weaker and his breathing became more labored, she brought Zhafran to hospital, where scans showed Covid-19 had already damaged his right lung.

She remembers the doctor telling her to prepare for the worst. “You can be optimistic, but it all depends on God,” she remembers him saying.

On July 5, Kinanti’s mother died. Kinanti still doesn’t know whether her mother had Covid because she wasn’t tested. Kinanti didn’t go to her funeral — she was in hospital with her young son.

Aman B. Pulungan, the president of the Indonesian Pediatric Society, said it’s common for parents to assume their child doesn’t have Covid-19, in part because many people in Indonesia are unaware children can be infected.

“We don’t protect our children. This is the…



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