Pennsylvania — an open-seat race in a state that President Joe Biden carried in 2020 — remains the most likely to flip. But four other states have moved around slightly.
Two other Biden states are trading places, with New Hampshire leapfrogging above Nevada. It’s true that Biden carried the Granite State by a wider margin, but the potential GOP candidate options there are enough to move it above the Silver State for now. Of course, that could change if two big name Republicans in New Hampshire pass on the race.
The start of July marks the beginning of a new fundraising period, which means more candidates are likely to launch their campaigns, having waited until the end of the second quarter so as not to report a lower total from an incomplete quarter.
Check back here for CNN’s next ranking, which will be updated after second quarter fundraising reports are filed later this month.
Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)
Pennsylvania — where GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is not running for another term — remains the seat most likely to flip, in large part, because it’s an open seat in a state that Biden carried last fall. And while this race may come down to whatever the national environment looks like next year, Democrats regard it as their top pick up opportunity — even if they don’t yet know who their candidate is going to be. An already big field could get even more crowded with Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb thought to be closely eying the race. At least two potential candidates, fellow Reps. Madeleine Dean and Chrissy Houlahan, did take themselves out of the running. EMILY’s List, the pro-abortion rights powerhouse, backed Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh. The group is often a powerful player in Democratic primaries, including in another Democratic Senate primary here in 2016. The biggest name, however, remains Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the progressive former mayor of Braddock and a big fundraiser. Most of the Republican sparring has been between Army veteran Sean Parnell, who ran and lost against Lamb last year, and Jeff Bartos, a wealthy businessman who loaned his campaign $400,000 during the first quarter.
Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock