The US is at risk of slipping backwards in its fight against COVID-19 as the Indian Delta variant has become the dominant strain and appears to be on track to make up every new case in New York City by next month.
The spread of the highly contagious strain, which originated in India, has already pushed new infections up to 26,306 nationwide, an increase of 69.3 percent on a seven-day moving average compared to one week earlier.
Nearly every state witnessed a rise in infections in the last week and CDC data shows the Delta variant is responsible for about 60 percent of these cases.
CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky warned that the current outbreak is becoming ‘a pandemic of the unvaccinated’ as most cases, hospitalizations and deaths are among people yet to take the shot while the nation’s vaccination rollout has stalled.
Fears are now mounting that the worst is yet to come as America looks to the United Kingdom, which is several weeks ahead in its battle against the Delta variant and is grappling with daily infections doubling within the space of a week.
Based on the rate with which the strain became dominant in the UK, then made up 100 percent of cases and set off a dramatic spike in cases and deaths, the US may well be just weeks away from reaching a similar crisis point.
New York City, which last year was the virus epicenter of the world, could see cases accelerate six-fold and deaths multiply by seven between now and the end of August if the spread of the variant mirrors that on the other side of the pond.
As the Indian Delta variant has taken over the U.K., its COVID cases have spiked. In New York, the Delta variant now has taken over, too. If the city follows the same path as the U.K., this chart shows the projected growth in the number of cases as of Aug. 14, when the strain looks set to comprise 100 percent of COVID cases in the city
Delta spread quickly throughout the UK and had become the dominant strain by May 21, when 60.6 percent of all new cases in the two weeks preceding it were identified as the B1.617.2 variant.
Just six weeks later, on the week ending July 2, 100 percent of all UK cases were the Delta variant.
New York City has a lag on the UK when it comes to the prevalence of the strain.
It became dominant by the week ending July 3, accounting for 69 percent of all new cases just as people jetted in and out of the city for the July 4 weekend.
This means if New York City follows the same pattern as the UK, the Big Apple is on track for the Delta strain to make up 100 percent of all new cases by August 14.
And this threatens to set off a new wave of the virus, just one month after New York state lifted all remaining coronavirus restrictions in June.
The spread of the Delta variant sent cases and deaths surging once again in the UK and plunged the country into yet another lockdown.
In the six weeks between May 21 – when it became the dominant strain – and July 2 – when it accounted for 100 percent of new cases, COVID-19 infections surged a staggering 1,124 percent from 2,290 to 25,750.
As the number of U.K. cases shoots higher with the Indian Delta COVID variant taking hold, New York City cases also are beginning to move higher – and they threaten to spike just as the U.K.’s numbers have as the Delta variant becomes an increasing share of the city’s infections
Still, with vaccine rates high in both the U.K., deaths have not spiked higher even as COVID cases have; New Yorkers and Americans can hold onto some hope that deaths won’t spike, either, though in areas of the country with low vaccination rates, there is some worry
Deaths also almost quadrupled from 7 to 27 within the same timeframe, with the nation’s vaccine rollout credited with limiting the fatality rate.
Cases and deaths have continued to climb in the two weeks since, with daily infections more than doubling to 54,674 and another 41 people dying Saturday.
Hospitalizations also spiked 30.4 per cent to 740 on July 13 — the latest date data is available for and the highest number of daily admissions seen since March 2, when 834 patients were recorded.
In the last week alone, cases jumped by more than two thirds with the UK on track to pass 100,000 new daily infections in two weeks’ time and experts warning a new lockdown could be needed by September.
Based on the trends seen in the UK, New York City could be on track for a similar surge in cases and deaths over the coming weeks and months.
New York City, where there’s been a big vaccination drive, could see cases accelerate six-fold and deaths multiply by seven between now and the end of August if the spread of the variant mirrors that on the other side of the pond
If infections surge at the same rate between Delta becoming dominant and 100 percent saturating the city, the number of cases in the Big Apple could climb from 192 recorded on July 3 to around 2,158 on August 14 when the strain makes up all new…